Economic reconstruction of Ukraine’s industrial macroregions based on public–private partnership under conditions of war and post-war recovery

Abstract

The article substantiates a conceptual model for the economic reconstruction of Ukraine’s industrial macroregions under conditions of war and post-war recovery based on public–private partnership (PPP). It demonstrates that large-scale destruction of production capacities, logistics hubs, and critical infrastructure necessitates a transition from fragmented recovery measures to a systemic macroregional reconstruction oriented toward the build back better principle, structural transformation of industry, and increased economic resilience. The reconstruction of industrial macroregions is proposed to be viewed as an integrated combination of infrastructure, industrial, and innovation contours, ensuring the alignment of the restoration of basic networks, modernization of production potential, and the formation of long-term sources of economic growth. Relevant PPP models for reconstruction and modernization projects are systema-tized according to their functional purpose and risk levels; the expediency of a portfolio approach to PPP implementation at the macroregional level is substantiated. A risk matrix for PPP projects is developed, taking into account wartime, fiscal, market, institutional, and climate factors, and principles for allocating these risks between public and private partners according to their risk-management capacities are defined. A roadmap for implementing a portfolio of PPP projects at the macroregional level is elaborated, adapted to the specifics of the Prydniprovya macroregion as a key industrial region of Ukraine.