Methodology of anticipatory management in an uncertain environment

Abstract

The tools of anticipatory management technology are disclosed, which for the first time are related to the management system andprovide the possibility of biased influence on threatening manifestations of external factors. The application of the category of the general indicator of the enterprise's activity, capable of reacting most sensitively to manifestations of external factors of a threatening nature, is added to the system of analysis of the state of enterprises on the market. For the earliest observation of threatening phenomena, the concept of their weak signals is introduced as early predictors of the occurrence of threats in the future.The decisive point of the anticipatory approach is the introduction of the concept and determination in time of the bifurcation point, that is, the extreme moment of the adoption of anti-crisis measures, the effect of which manages to prevent the development of the crisis of the enterprise. A block diagram of the operation of the modified enterprise management system is presented, which connects the efforts of all existing management units in a single chain: anti-crisis management, change management, and adaptive organization with the unit of anticipatory management.