Identifying the risks of armed conflict impact on the ecosystem

Abstract

The object of the study is the territory that became the object of the influence of hostilities. The study is dedicated to finding ways to assess the state of ecosystems and ensure their stability in the conditions of military conflicts. The impact of military conflict on the environment is highlighted through the analysis of risks and losses in ecosystems. It has been studied that the intensity of armed conflicts determines the scale and degree of damage to ecosystems, and the use of destructive weapons leads to the direct destruction of natural environments and their components. It has been determined by an expert survey that the most significant changes in natural ecosystems are the biodiversity losses, deforestation, territorial changes and the destruction of natural objects (scores ≥9.0). Factors of low impact (score <6.75) are air pollution, erosion due to air pollution, biodiversity losses due to water pollution. The interrelationships between military actions and environmental pollution are studied for the importance of understanding these processes for effective management of environmental security during military conflicts. A mathematical and graphic model of material flows has been developed, which allows taking into account resource flows, pollution and losses in the ecosystem during armed conflicts. The model, tested in the Kyiv region, made it possible to determine the priorities of conservation and risk management. Analysis of 9,000 km2 revealed contaminated areas, in particular, in the southwestern and western directions. The practical use of the research results is in the development of strategies for minimizing and restoring the ecological consequences of armed conflicts. This can help improve the management of natural resources in the context of military operations and increase the resilience of ecosystems.