MODEL OF INDICATOR OF CURRENT RISK OF THREATS REALIZATION ON THE INFORMATION COMMUNICATION SYSTEM OF TRANSPORT

Abstract

The paper proposed a model for estimating the quantitative indicator of current risks of threats and cyberattacks realization on information communication systems of transport (ICST), that differs from the existing models with ability to take into account the degree of influence of each threat or cyberattack within the class on the probability of an emergency situation that arises at cyber-attacks on components of information communication systems of transport, which in many cases can be attributed to critical computer systems. For approbation of the proposed model the simulation experiment was conducted, the results of which also are presented in the article. Simulation modeling is also carried out for verification of adequacy of the proposed model and algorithm of estimation of current risks for components of ICST. It is considered that many components of ICST work in real time. It is shown that the proposed model takes into account current values of information security metrics and new classes of cyberthreats for ICST.